August 28th, 2008
For the past two weeks I've been trying to collect as much information as possible about the situation in Georgia. I talked to more than a dozen Russian and US military experts, got in touch with my contacts in Tbilisi and North Ossetia, and exchanged information with dozens of journalists in Moscow and here in the States. The goal of spending all this free time - normally reserved for fishing - was to piece together the most complete picture of the events in the Caucasus. My main worry was that someone will beat me to the punch (like the Asia Times or Jane's), rendering all my efforts redundant. Luckily, no one did.
Don't get me wrong: volumes have been written on the subject of Georgia's attack on South Ossetia and the subsequent military action by Russia against Saakashvili's regime. Most of these reports and analyses were rubbish, but some were good – in a very limited way. All the people writing on the situation in Georgia and relations with Russia can be separated into four categories: idiots, the good old boys, gearheads, and strategists. The idiots talk primarily about how the West should punish Russia (or, in case with Russian idiots, how Russia should punish the West). The good old boys are trying to revive the language and ideas of the Cold War era. The gearheads are counting the tanks, comparing missile ranges, and analyzing tactical maneuvers. And, finally, the strategists are overreaching themselves in trying to predict the future.
I probably belong in all four categories. I think Russia should take more definitive steps to reassert itself on the international arena. For years I've been criticizing Putin for his timid foreign policy. I am convinced the Cold War never really ended. I have no doubt that, despite all the dangers, the Cold War was one of the most productive periods in the development of human civilization – our culture, science and technology. I've been known to spend weeks reading nothing but technical specifications of tanks, fighter jets, and missiles. And, as a noted armchair admiral, I would rarely pass up an opportunity to make a strategic prediction, far too often ending up looking like a complete jackass just a few months later.
Read my full report on the war in Georgia. It's too long for the blog format, so I had to upload it as a PDF file.
Don't get me wrong: volumes have been written on the subject of Georgia's attack on South Ossetia and the subsequent military action by Russia against Saakashvili's regime. Most of these reports and analyses were rubbish, but some were good – in a very limited way. All the people writing on the situation in Georgia and relations with Russia can be separated into four categories: idiots, the good old boys, gearheads, and strategists. The idiots talk primarily about how the West should punish Russia (or, in case with Russian idiots, how Russia should punish the West). The good old boys are trying to revive the language and ideas of the Cold War era. The gearheads are counting the tanks, comparing missile ranges, and analyzing tactical maneuvers. And, finally, the strategists are overreaching themselves in trying to predict the future.I probably belong in all four categories. I think Russia should take more definitive steps to reassert itself on the international arena. For years I've been criticizing Putin for his timid foreign policy. I am convinced the Cold War never really ended. I have no doubt that, despite all the dangers, the Cold War was one of the most productive periods in the development of human civilization – our culture, science and technology. I've been known to spend weeks reading nothing but technical specifications of tanks, fighter jets, and missiles. And, as a noted armchair admiral, I would rarely pass up an opportunity to make a strategic prediction, far too often ending up looking like a complete jackass just a few months later.
Read my full report on the war in Georgia. It's too long for the blog format, so I had to upload it as a PDF file.
![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small}
