August 14th, 2008
The Christian Science Monitor – of all newspapers – published perhaps the most relevant and concise description of what Moscow has achieved so far with its blitzkrieg response to Georgia's sneak-attack on South Ossetia.
America's response to what the White House called “disproportionate use of force” by Russia for the most part has been limited to attacks on Russia's image. There is a popular but misguided opinion in the US and the EU that the Russians want to be liked by the West. They don't. They want to be respected and they want their opinion to matter.
For nearly a decade Russia has been complying with the West's every demand. Russia withdrew from Cuba and Vietnam; it did little to oppose NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia; it awarded lucrative oil and gas contract to Western energy giants; it offered its political support in dealing with Iran and nuclear non-proliferation. How much respect did all of this earn Russia in the eyes of Washington and Brussels? None. NATO is continuing to expand closer to the Russian borders; Americans dropped the 1972 ABM treaty and are deploying missile defenses in Eastern Europe; neither the US nor the EU paid any attention to Russia's position on Kosovo's independence, which led to the escalation of the situation in South Ossetia.
Widespread destruction in Tskhinvali was the result of an overnight bombardment on August 7 by the Georgian army.
It took them a while, but the Russian leadership has finally realized that brute force is the only language understood by the US and the European Union. The US is not trying to hide its imperialistic tendencies, bombing nations around the globe. And despite modern Europe's civilized facade, the best way to work with the EU is still to speak softly and carry a big stick. In the end, very few in Russia care how loved Russia is in the world, as long as its opinions carry weight and its interests are protected.
Will Russian economy suffer as the result of the scuffle with Georgia? Not a chance. The brutal truth is that the world needs Russia's resources and influence. It's a very simple equation: Russia has what the rest of the world needs and nobody can take it by force. Whether you like them or hate them, you will have to find a common language with the Russians. In the past few months the world gained a better appreciation of the importance of having stable sources of affordable energy. Russia is the biggest such source.
McCain says “kick the Russians out of G8”. He's an old, sick man, and we should excuse his stupidity. Some Western analysts say let's punish Russia by jacking up insurance rates for the 2014 Winter Olympic Games in Sochi. This is not just funny – it's hysterical: America's best response to what it believes to be a Russian aggression against its ally is: “We'll raise your insurance rates!” And Russia will pay the premiums by raising oil and gas prices. Brilliant. Bush decided to cancel a joint naval exercise with Russia. It's not really clear who this punishes more: Russia or the US Navy. In any case, the Russian Navy is doing plenty of exercising in the Black Sea off the coast of Georgia.
Injured Ossetian civilians are recuperating in a makeshift underground hospital in Tskhinvali.
In a big rush to tarnish Russia's image, the West should not forget its bottom line. The US these days is not exactly what one would call an economic powerhouse, thanks to the efforts of its president and the flagships of its banking industry. Pentagon generals are up to their epaulets in Iraqis and Afghanis, having to borrow hundreds of billions from the Chinese and the Russians just to keep fighting for another few months. Today Russia told Washington to choose between a partnership with Russia or the love affair with Saakashvili. Prices at the gas pumps across America and the future of the US economy depend on this choice.
But let's get to the situation on the ground in Georgia. According to an official report by the Deputy Chief of General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Gen. Anatoliy Nagovitsin, Russia's losses between August 7 and August 13 are 74 soldiers dead, 171 wounded, and 19 missing in action. According to Nagovitsin, Georgian soldiers captured by Russian forces will be exchanged for the pilot of the Russian reconnaissance plane downed by Georgian air defenses during the first day of the war.
The disarmament ultimatum issued by the Russian side was accepted by some Georgian army units. According to Gen. Nagovitsin, some 700 firearms have been surrendered as of August 13. On August 11, soldiers from the 4th VDV (paratroopers) regiment captured a high-ranking Georgian staff officer, who had a detailed map of the attack against Abkhazia, planned by the Georgian army. On August 11 Russia airlifted several thousand troops and light armor to Abkhazia to counter the planned Georgian invasion. Abkhazian separatists, supported by Russian aircraft, launched their own attack and forced Georgian troops out of the Kodori region of Abkhazia, used by the Georgian army as a staging area. The Georgian army withdrew from Kodori almost without a fight. According to official reports from Abkhazia, two Georgian and one Abkhazian soldier were killed in the operation.
Russian artillery in South Ossetia shelling Georgian army positions.
Monsieur Sarkozy's heroic peace-making efforts gave Russia considerable freedom to implement “additional security measures” throughout Georgia under the peace agreement. After being told by Sarkozy that the Russian tanks are forty miles away from Tbilisi, Saakashvili agreed to Russia's conditions for a cease-fire. The NY Times ran a good story detailing the French-led peace-negotiating process.
Unnamed senior US administration officials say that since the fighting begun last week, Russia moved between 8,000 and 10,000 troops to Georgia and that now their total strength in Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions is at least 15,000. To me this sounds like a realistic estimate. Just a reminder: Georgia has a professional US-trained army of 32,000.
Russian forces were stationed to the north of Gori to prevent reprisal attacks by the South Ossetian militia against Georgians living in the city. According to the representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense Maj. Gen. Vyacheslav Borisov, these forces have now moved back to Tskhinvali, transferring control of Gori to Georgian police. Small Russian detachments will remain in Gori for two more days to observe the actions of Georgian police. Borisov reported that he toured Gori with Georgian officials and several foreign ambassadors and that the rumors of widespread destruction and looting are not true. Gori still has running water and electricity.
Vehicle recovery and repair units, escorted by armored personnel carriers, are moving around the countryside outside or Gori and Senaki, collecting heavy weapons left behind by the retreating Georgian army. Russian planes and helicopter gunship continue flying combat air patrols, however, there were no new reports of aerial attacks. BBC footage Tskhinvali showed camouflaged Russian “Tunguska” anti-aircraft vehicles.
Russian Finance Ministry announced that it allocated $400 million to be spend by the end of the year on reconstruction of Tskhinvali. Russian gas and electric crews are working around the clock to restore basic services to the city. Electricity, local TV broadcasts and newspaper deliveries are expected to be restored by Friday.
"If the Russians stop hostilities now, they will have redrawn the whole strategic situation in the Caucasus, to the detriment of the Americans," says François Heisbourg, special adviser to the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris. "No one will invest in Georgia, in oil pipelines, in new ventures [there] now.... The game is over. In the new version of the Great Game, the Russians can cash in." The scope of the "victory" is substantial: Moscow controls territory and leverage, has incapacitated the Georgian military, denied Tblisi its much-hoped-for NATO status, and put the Georgian leader it despises – Mikheil Saakashvili – into a tough position.
It has issued a symbolic warning to Ukraine's westward leanings, asserted clout in oil and gas pipeline futures, denied Georgia the possibility of reclaiming breakaway provinces Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and affirmed a deeply Russian set of hard-line political values regarding the disputed front lines of the old cold war.
Moreover, by agreeing to halt its military on Tuesday, working with French mediator Nicolas Sarkozy, and only "recommending" that Mr. Saakashvili step down, Moscow is arguing it has reasonably protected its interests and not overthrown a sovereign state.”
(Russia's big Caucasus win, by Robert Marquand and Fred Weir, The Christian Science Monitor, August 14, 2008)
America's response to what the White House called “disproportionate use of force” by Russia for the most part has been limited to attacks on Russia's image. There is a popular but misguided opinion in the US and the EU that the Russians want to be liked by the West. They don't. They want to be respected and they want their opinion to matter.
For nearly a decade Russia has been complying with the West's every demand. Russia withdrew from Cuba and Vietnam; it did little to oppose NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia; it awarded lucrative oil and gas contract to Western energy giants; it offered its political support in dealing with Iran and nuclear non-proliferation. How much respect did all of this earn Russia in the eyes of Washington and Brussels? None. NATO is continuing to expand closer to the Russian borders; Americans dropped the 1972 ABM treaty and are deploying missile defenses in Eastern Europe; neither the US nor the EU paid any attention to Russia's position on Kosovo's independence, which led to the escalation of the situation in South Ossetia.
Widespread destruction in Tskhinvali was the result of an overnight bombardment on August 7 by the Georgian army.
It took them a while, but the Russian leadership has finally realized that brute force is the only language understood by the US and the European Union. The US is not trying to hide its imperialistic tendencies, bombing nations around the globe. And despite modern Europe's civilized facade, the best way to work with the EU is still to speak softly and carry a big stick. In the end, very few in Russia care how loved Russia is in the world, as long as its opinions carry weight and its interests are protected.
Will Russian economy suffer as the result of the scuffle with Georgia? Not a chance. The brutal truth is that the world needs Russia's resources and influence. It's a very simple equation: Russia has what the rest of the world needs and nobody can take it by force. Whether you like them or hate them, you will have to find a common language with the Russians. In the past few months the world gained a better appreciation of the importance of having stable sources of affordable energy. Russia is the biggest such source.
McCain says “kick the Russians out of G8”. He's an old, sick man, and we should excuse his stupidity. Some Western analysts say let's punish Russia by jacking up insurance rates for the 2014 Winter Olympic Games in Sochi. This is not just funny – it's hysterical: America's best response to what it believes to be a Russian aggression against its ally is: “We'll raise your insurance rates!” And Russia will pay the premiums by raising oil and gas prices. Brilliant. Bush decided to cancel a joint naval exercise with Russia. It's not really clear who this punishes more: Russia or the US Navy. In any case, the Russian Navy is doing plenty of exercising in the Black Sea off the coast of Georgia.
Injured Ossetian civilians are recuperating in a makeshift underground hospital in Tskhinvali.
In a big rush to tarnish Russia's image, the West should not forget its bottom line. The US these days is not exactly what one would call an economic powerhouse, thanks to the efforts of its president and the flagships of its banking industry. Pentagon generals are up to their epaulets in Iraqis and Afghanis, having to borrow hundreds of billions from the Chinese and the Russians just to keep fighting for another few months. Today Russia told Washington to choose between a partnership with Russia or the love affair with Saakashvili. Prices at the gas pumps across America and the future of the US economy depend on this choice.
But let's get to the situation on the ground in Georgia. According to an official report by the Deputy Chief of General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Gen. Anatoliy Nagovitsin, Russia's losses between August 7 and August 13 are 74 soldiers dead, 171 wounded, and 19 missing in action. According to Nagovitsin, Georgian soldiers captured by Russian forces will be exchanged for the pilot of the Russian reconnaissance plane downed by Georgian air defenses during the first day of the war.
The disarmament ultimatum issued by the Russian side was accepted by some Georgian army units. According to Gen. Nagovitsin, some 700 firearms have been surrendered as of August 13. On August 11, soldiers from the 4th VDV (paratroopers) regiment captured a high-ranking Georgian staff officer, who had a detailed map of the attack against Abkhazia, planned by the Georgian army. On August 11 Russia airlifted several thousand troops and light armor to Abkhazia to counter the planned Georgian invasion. Abkhazian separatists, supported by Russian aircraft, launched their own attack and forced Georgian troops out of the Kodori region of Abkhazia, used by the Georgian army as a staging area. The Georgian army withdrew from Kodori almost without a fight. According to official reports from Abkhazia, two Georgian and one Abkhazian soldier were killed in the operation.
Russian artillery in South Ossetia shelling Georgian army positions.
Monsieur Sarkozy's heroic peace-making efforts gave Russia considerable freedom to implement “additional security measures” throughout Georgia under the peace agreement. After being told by Sarkozy that the Russian tanks are forty miles away from Tbilisi, Saakashvili agreed to Russia's conditions for a cease-fire. The NY Times ran a good story detailing the French-led peace-negotiating process.
Unnamed senior US administration officials say that since the fighting begun last week, Russia moved between 8,000 and 10,000 troops to Georgia and that now their total strength in Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions is at least 15,000. To me this sounds like a realistic estimate. Just a reminder: Georgia has a professional US-trained army of 32,000.
Russian forces were stationed to the north of Gori to prevent reprisal attacks by the South Ossetian militia against Georgians living in the city. According to the representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense Maj. Gen. Vyacheslav Borisov, these forces have now moved back to Tskhinvali, transferring control of Gori to Georgian police. Small Russian detachments will remain in Gori for two more days to observe the actions of Georgian police. Borisov reported that he toured Gori with Georgian officials and several foreign ambassadors and that the rumors of widespread destruction and looting are not true. Gori still has running water and electricity.
Vehicle recovery and repair units, escorted by armored personnel carriers, are moving around the countryside outside or Gori and Senaki, collecting heavy weapons left behind by the retreating Georgian army. Russian planes and helicopter gunship continue flying combat air patrols, however, there were no new reports of aerial attacks. BBC footage Tskhinvali showed camouflaged Russian “Tunguska” anti-aircraft vehicles.
Russian Finance Ministry announced that it allocated $400 million to be spend by the end of the year on reconstruction of Tskhinvali. Russian gas and electric crews are working around the clock to restore basic services to the city. Electricity, local TV broadcasts and newspaper deliveries are expected to be restored by Friday.
Mark Deen and Reed Landberg of Bloomberg have beat me to the punch with their Russia's War With Georgia May Reopen U.S. Rift With Europe. Next time I will have to type faster. If you follow the news from Russia and Georgia, you are probably aware of the extraordinary effort by Nicolas Sarkozy to broker a cease-fire deal. The terms of the agreement heavily favor Moscow, allowing its troops to “implement additional security measures” not just in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but across all of Georgia.
The peace deal quickly gained support from Italy and Germany, while the UK and Poland wanted to see the EU adopt a tougher line against Russia. Condoleezza Rice traveled to Tbilisi to publicly show Washington's support for Saakashvili, while privately trying to persuade the Georgian president to accept the French-brokered peace deal.
Another sticking point of the cease-fire deal is Russia's insistence on excluding any references to Georgia's territorial integrity and instead using words like “sovereignty” and “independence”. Today Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said: “One can forget about any talk about Georgia's territorial integrity because, I believe, it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state.” While the US reiterated its support for Georgia's territorial integrity, Lavrov's point of view is clearly far more realistic.
South Ossetian refugees heading for safety in Russia.
There is another aspect to the wrangling over Georgia's territorial integrity concept. South Ossetia and Abkhazia are Russia's most important leverage against Georgia. For as long as these two provinces formally remain a part of Georgia, there will be no peace in the country. Georgia will remain in limbo and unable to fulfill its aspirations to join the EU and the NATO. If Georgia suddenly decides “The hell with South Ossetia and Abkhazia – Moscow can have them”, Russia will gain territory but lose leverage. Thus, there is a slight possibility that, after a good tug-of-war with the US in the UN Security Council, Moscow will eventually agree to some form of “territorial integrity” language in the final peace deal. The situation will then return to prewar status-quo and start escalating from there.
In other news, as the fog of war over Tbilisi clears and patriotism subsides, people start asking questions. I was finally able to get through to one of my contacts in Tbilisi to have some first-hand information. Needless to say, he is not particularly happy with my blog and thinks that I am a pig-headed Ukrainian who needs to learn tolerance and expand his geopolitical horizons. He's probably right. In any case, Georgians are starting to question the wisdom and, indeed, the sanity of their president.
Russian armored vehicles near the border between Georgia and South Ossetia.
Patriotism is gradually turning to depression as Tbilisi residents encounter their retreating army and begin to realize that this was not the overwhelming victory over Moscow trumpeted by their president. By nature, Georgians are optimists (albeit melodramatic ones and prone to severe mood swings) and depression quickly gives way to anger. It's not that they are surprised they lost the military action – in the back of their minds most Georgians never seriously expected to defeat Russia – but they are appalled by their army's lackluster performance and by Saakashvili's great display of personal cowardice during his PR trip to Gori.
For many years Saakashvili has been telling his country that the West was firmly behind all his policies. America's humanitarian aid and the EU's good wishes aside, this turned out not to be the case. As they are opening cans of USAF-delivered “Spam”, Georgians can't help but wonder if Saakashvili was the right man for the job. Apparently, Saakashvili himself is growing increasingly wary of things to come. The opposition is waiting for the wave of wartime patriotism to dissipate and preparing a major assault on their fearless leader.
Saakashvili's former brother-in-arms and the country's ex-Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili was once again denied entry into Georgia. Okruashvili and Saakashvili grew apart in 2006. Okruashvili was fired from his post as the defense minister, charged with corruption, arrested, and later released on parole. He accused Saakashvili of trying to assassinate him and flew to France, where he received the status of a political refugee. He was tried in-absentia by a Tbilisi court and sentenced to 11 years in jail.
Georgian army official in charge of investigating cases of disappearing humanitarian aid. He points to a hole under the fence and claims that rats ate all the aid. (For the folks out there with no sense of humor: joke alert).
In a phone conversation with Saakashvili on August 12, Okruashvili asked for a pardon and announced that he was “ready to support the president despite the many disagreements that led to the intense standoff.” The same day, during an anti-war rally in Tbilisi, Saakashvili brought up the conversation with his former defense minister and said “I can forget the insults for patriotism is our higher goal.” Nevertheless, Okruashvili was denied entry to Georgia. The reason for this decision by Saakashvili is quite simple: about a year ago Okruashvili aligned himself with Saakashvili's opposition and was considered by some as a possible presidential candidate. Saakashvili is feeling his public support slipping away and the last thing he needs in Tbilisi is another opposition figurehead.
Other than that, life in Tbilisi is business as usual: gas, electricity and hot water are available only on select days and even then just for a few hours. This has been the case for many months and has nothing to do with the war. Just over a year ago Saakashvili proclaimed that Georgia was no longer reliant on Russian electricity. Apparently, Georgian authorities were able to reduce the country's consumption of electricity by thrusting the country into the dark ages for a few hours every day. Georgia's sad economic state, however, did not stop Saakashvili from spending nearly a billion US dollars every year on rearming and training the country's small army. Money well spent, Misha.
Georgian army walking back home. Rumor has it, Russian helicopter pilots don't look kindly on army trucks heading toward Tbilisi.
By now many of you probably have seen Larry King's interview with Gorbachev and Saakashvili's “rebuttal”. Gorbachev talked about the need for peace and the long history of Russians and Georgians living together in harmony. Saakashvili called Gorbachev Kremlin's PR man, mentioned KGB two dozen times, refused to announce his support for the French-brokered peace deal, and generally made a complete ass of himself. In other words, Saakashvili was being himself.
Finally, some of you may be wondering why Russian armored columns appear to be aimlessly roving around Georgian countryside, confusing the hell out of CNN's Anderson Cooper. Some American political analysts are saying that this is Russia's way to thumb its nose at the US. I am sorry to disappoint them: Georgian army withdrew so quickly that they left behind huge stashes of weapons and ammunition. Left unsecured, these stockpiles will no doubt be looted and used to fuel a civil war in the country. Perhaps this is exactly what the Georgian commanders had in mind when they left all these weapons behind. Saakashvili wants NATO presence, even if limited, in the country and an escalating ethnic conflict is the only way he may get his wish.
The peace deal quickly gained support from Italy and Germany, while the UK and Poland wanted to see the EU adopt a tougher line against Russia. Condoleezza Rice traveled to Tbilisi to publicly show Washington's support for Saakashvili, while privately trying to persuade the Georgian president to accept the French-brokered peace deal.
Another sticking point of the cease-fire deal is Russia's insistence on excluding any references to Georgia's territorial integrity and instead using words like “sovereignty” and “independence”. Today Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said: “One can forget about any talk about Georgia's territorial integrity because, I believe, it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state.” While the US reiterated its support for Georgia's territorial integrity, Lavrov's point of view is clearly far more realistic.
South Ossetian refugees heading for safety in Russia.
There is another aspect to the wrangling over Georgia's territorial integrity concept. South Ossetia and Abkhazia are Russia's most important leverage against Georgia. For as long as these two provinces formally remain a part of Georgia, there will be no peace in the country. Georgia will remain in limbo and unable to fulfill its aspirations to join the EU and the NATO. If Georgia suddenly decides “The hell with South Ossetia and Abkhazia – Moscow can have them”, Russia will gain territory but lose leverage. Thus, there is a slight possibility that, after a good tug-of-war with the US in the UN Security Council, Moscow will eventually agree to some form of “territorial integrity” language in the final peace deal. The situation will then return to prewar status-quo and start escalating from there.
In other news, as the fog of war over Tbilisi clears and patriotism subsides, people start asking questions. I was finally able to get through to one of my contacts in Tbilisi to have some first-hand information. Needless to say, he is not particularly happy with my blog and thinks that I am a pig-headed Ukrainian who needs to learn tolerance and expand his geopolitical horizons. He's probably right. In any case, Georgians are starting to question the wisdom and, indeed, the sanity of their president.
Russian armored vehicles near the border between Georgia and South Ossetia.
Patriotism is gradually turning to depression as Tbilisi residents encounter their retreating army and begin to realize that this was not the overwhelming victory over Moscow trumpeted by their president. By nature, Georgians are optimists (albeit melodramatic ones and prone to severe mood swings) and depression quickly gives way to anger. It's not that they are surprised they lost the military action – in the back of their minds most Georgians never seriously expected to defeat Russia – but they are appalled by their army's lackluster performance and by Saakashvili's great display of personal cowardice during his PR trip to Gori.
For many years Saakashvili has been telling his country that the West was firmly behind all his policies. America's humanitarian aid and the EU's good wishes aside, this turned out not to be the case. As they are opening cans of USAF-delivered “Spam”, Georgians can't help but wonder if Saakashvili was the right man for the job. Apparently, Saakashvili himself is growing increasingly wary of things to come. The opposition is waiting for the wave of wartime patriotism to dissipate and preparing a major assault on their fearless leader.
Saakashvili's former brother-in-arms and the country's ex-Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili was once again denied entry into Georgia. Okruashvili and Saakashvili grew apart in 2006. Okruashvili was fired from his post as the defense minister, charged with corruption, arrested, and later released on parole. He accused Saakashvili of trying to assassinate him and flew to France, where he received the status of a political refugee. He was tried in-absentia by a Tbilisi court and sentenced to 11 years in jail.
Georgian army official in charge of investigating cases of disappearing humanitarian aid. He points to a hole under the fence and claims that rats ate all the aid. (For the folks out there with no sense of humor: joke alert).
In a phone conversation with Saakashvili on August 12, Okruashvili asked for a pardon and announced that he was “ready to support the president despite the many disagreements that led to the intense standoff.” The same day, during an anti-war rally in Tbilisi, Saakashvili brought up the conversation with his former defense minister and said “I can forget the insults for patriotism is our higher goal.” Nevertheless, Okruashvili was denied entry to Georgia. The reason for this decision by Saakashvili is quite simple: about a year ago Okruashvili aligned himself with Saakashvili's opposition and was considered by some as a possible presidential candidate. Saakashvili is feeling his public support slipping away and the last thing he needs in Tbilisi is another opposition figurehead.
Other than that, life in Tbilisi is business as usual: gas, electricity and hot water are available only on select days and even then just for a few hours. This has been the case for many months and has nothing to do with the war. Just over a year ago Saakashvili proclaimed that Georgia was no longer reliant on Russian electricity. Apparently, Georgian authorities were able to reduce the country's consumption of electricity by thrusting the country into the dark ages for a few hours every day. Georgia's sad economic state, however, did not stop Saakashvili from spending nearly a billion US dollars every year on rearming and training the country's small army. Money well spent, Misha.
Georgian army walking back home. Rumor has it, Russian helicopter pilots don't look kindly on army trucks heading toward Tbilisi.
By now many of you probably have seen Larry King's interview with Gorbachev and Saakashvili's “rebuttal”. Gorbachev talked about the need for peace and the long history of Russians and Georgians living together in harmony. Saakashvili called Gorbachev Kremlin's PR man, mentioned KGB two dozen times, refused to announce his support for the French-brokered peace deal, and generally made a complete ass of himself. In other words, Saakashvili was being himself.
Finally, some of you may be wondering why Russian armored columns appear to be aimlessly roving around Georgian countryside, confusing the hell out of CNN's Anderson Cooper. Some American political analysts are saying that this is Russia's way to thumb its nose at the US. I am sorry to disappoint them: Georgian army withdrew so quickly that they left behind huge stashes of weapons and ammunition. Left unsecured, these stockpiles will no doubt be looted and used to fuel a civil war in the country. Perhaps this is exactly what the Georgian commanders had in mind when they left all these weapons behind. Saakashvili wants NATO presence, even if limited, in the country and an escalating ethnic conflict is the only way he may get his wish.
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