Venik (![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small} venik4) wrote,@ 2008-09-04 19:10:00 |
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Ukraine's Political Turmoil
The constitutional crisis in Ukraine is a direct result of the threats made by the US and the EU against Russia's WTO membership bid. In case Ukraine's political life is not at the top of your list of interests, here is a very brief summary of events from the past week of Ukraine's turbulent political life.
Yushchenko – Ukraine's pro-Western president – accused Julia Timoshenko – Ukraine's cute, hugely popular pro-Western Prime Minister of treason and launched a formal criminal investigation against his right-hand woman and mother-in-law of Sean Carr of Death Valley Screamers. Yushchenko claims that Timoshenko was in bed with the Kremlin and that Russia was going to support Timoshenko in the upcoming 2010 presidential election. Timoshenko, who is also the leader of the BYT – the second largest faction in the Parliament - sided with the Regions Party (led by the pro-Russian former Prime Minister and presidential candidate Yanukovich) to pass - with overwhelming majority – a legislation stripping the president of some of his most important powers.
Timoshenko also called Yushchenko's rule a “dictatorship of stupidity, irresponsibility and chaos”. Yushchenko threatened to dissolve the Parliament and to call for early parliamentary elections, probably hoping that the anti-Russian hysteria raised in the wake of the war in Georgia will allow his nationalist party to get more seats in the parliament at the expense of Yanukovich's Regions Party. And Timoshenko countered by calling for early presidential elections, which she should have no problem winning due to Yushchenko's extremely low approval ratings. Timoshenko is one of the most ruthless and opportunistic politicians in the history of politics. Yushchenko learned the hard way not to put anything in his Prime Minister's pretty little mouth.
All this Brownian motion in Kiev's political circles was caused by Russia's decision to shelve its WTO membership plans in light of continuing opposition from the US and the European Union. So how does this affect Ukraine, you ask? Russia is by far Ukraine's most important trade partner and its biggest energy supplier. Ukraine imports 90% of its oil and most of its natural gas. Despite sharp political disagreements, yearly trade between Russia and Ukraine has grown from about $9 billion in 2000 to nearly $30 billion in 2007. A quarter of Ukraine's exports is going to Russia.
Ukraine is one of the world's largest producers of cast iron and steel. However, many steel production facilities in Ukraine are owned by Russian businesses. Also, most electricity used by Ukraine's steel mills comes from Russia. Ukraine is a large exporter of coal-derived fuel coke, mineral fertilizers and sulfuric acid. Ukraine is also a major producer of grain, sugar, meat and dairy products. Russia is the biggest foreign consumer of these Ukrainian products. Russia's attempts to join the WTO meant pacifying Ukraine's opposition by offering the country favorable trading status.
Now that Russia is getting ready to put its WTO aspirations on ice for a few years, Ukraine may be hit the hardest. Favorable trading status for Ukraine no longer makes economic sense for Russia, which is now more interested in protecting its own steel, chemical, and agricultural industries. For example, growing food prices in Europe increase viability of Russia's own agricultural industry, making it attractive for investors. Trade with Russia also accounts for most of Ukraine's hi-tech exports, without which the country risks becoming Poland-junior in the European economic hierarchy with no hope of serious growth.
With Ukraine's steel production and coal mining industries behind Yanukovich and the country's energy and agricultural sectors behind Timoshenko, the big business in Ukraine prompted the two largest parliamentary factions – Timoshenko's BYT and Yanukovich's Regions Party – to join forces against the country's embattled president, whose stark anti-Russian rhetoric in the past weeks has irked the Kremlin and threatened Ukraine's growing trade with its largest economic partner. While the West is worrying about Russian tanks taking over the Crimean Peninsula, the likely future of political life in Kiev will be shaped by a different kind of a hostile takeover. Yushchenko's latest troubles are signs of how distant Ukraine's president has become from his country's economic reality.
The constitutional crisis in Ukraine is a direct result of the threats made by the US and the EU against Russia's WTO membership bid. In case Ukraine's political life is not at the top of your list of interests, here is a very brief summary of events from the past week of Ukraine's turbulent political life.
Yushchenko – Ukraine's pro-Western president – accused Julia Timoshenko – Ukraine's cute, hugely popular pro-Western Prime Minister of treason and launched a formal criminal investigation against his right-hand woman and mother-in-law of Sean Carr of Death Valley Screamers. Yushchenko claims that Timoshenko was in bed with the Kremlin and that Russia was going to support Timoshenko in the upcoming 2010 presidential election. Timoshenko, who is also the leader of the BYT – the second largest faction in the Parliament - sided with the Regions Party (led by the pro-Russian former Prime Minister and presidential candidate Yanukovich) to pass - with overwhelming majority – a legislation stripping the president of some of his most important powers.
Timoshenko also called Yushchenko's rule a “dictatorship of stupidity, irresponsibility and chaos”. Yushchenko threatened to dissolve the Parliament and to call for early parliamentary elections, probably hoping that the anti-Russian hysteria raised in the wake of the war in Georgia will allow his nationalist party to get more seats in the parliament at the expense of Yanukovich's Regions Party. And Timoshenko countered by calling for early presidential elections, which she should have no problem winning due to Yushchenko's extremely low approval ratings. Timoshenko is one of the most ruthless and opportunistic politicians in the history of politics. Yushchenko learned the hard way not to put anything in his Prime Minister's pretty little mouth.All this Brownian motion in Kiev's political circles was caused by Russia's decision to shelve its WTO membership plans in light of continuing opposition from the US and the European Union. So how does this affect Ukraine, you ask? Russia is by far Ukraine's most important trade partner and its biggest energy supplier. Ukraine imports 90% of its oil and most of its natural gas. Despite sharp political disagreements, yearly trade between Russia and Ukraine has grown from about $9 billion in 2000 to nearly $30 billion in 2007. A quarter of Ukraine's exports is going to Russia.
Ukraine is one of the world's largest producers of cast iron and steel. However, many steel production facilities in Ukraine are owned by Russian businesses. Also, most electricity used by Ukraine's steel mills comes from Russia. Ukraine is a large exporter of coal-derived fuel coke, mineral fertilizers and sulfuric acid. Ukraine is also a major producer of grain, sugar, meat and dairy products. Russia is the biggest foreign consumer of these Ukrainian products. Russia's attempts to join the WTO meant pacifying Ukraine's opposition by offering the country favorable trading status.
Now that Russia is getting ready to put its WTO aspirations on ice for a few years, Ukraine may be hit the hardest. Favorable trading status for Ukraine no longer makes economic sense for Russia, which is now more interested in protecting its own steel, chemical, and agricultural industries. For example, growing food prices in Europe increase viability of Russia's own agricultural industry, making it attractive for investors. Trade with Russia also accounts for most of Ukraine's hi-tech exports, without which the country risks becoming Poland-junior in the European economic hierarchy with no hope of serious growth.
With Ukraine's steel production and coal mining industries behind Yanukovich and the country's energy and agricultural sectors behind Timoshenko, the big business in Ukraine prompted the two largest parliamentary factions – Timoshenko's BYT and Yanukovich's Regions Party – to join forces against the country's embattled president, whose stark anti-Russian rhetoric in the past weeks has irked the Kremlin and threatened Ukraine's growing trade with its largest economic partner. While the West is worrying about Russian tanks taking over the Crimean Peninsula, the likely future of political life in Kiev will be shaped by a different kind of a hostile takeover. Yushchenko's latest troubles are signs of how distant Ukraine's president has become from his country's economic reality.
