Venik (![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small} venik4) wrote, |
Re: Ukraine
Even if - or, rather, when - Ukraine joins the EU, the problem of dependency on Russian energy will be far from over, as we can see from the EU's recent attempt to censure Russia over war in Georgia. Ukraine's steel industry requires massive amounts of electrical power. The only way Ukraine can become self-sufficient in this regard is by building more nuclear power plants. However, due to Chernobyl history this idea does not sit well with most Ukrainians. I lived thirty miles from Chernobyl and I can understand them.
Ukraine's international trade is growing, but it's growing primarily with Russia and China and not with the EU, as the nationalists in Kiev would have preferred. The primary reason here is the economic competition from the New Europe and particularly from Poland. With the steel market oversaturated, agricultural products take up a bigger chunk of Ukraine's exports. And this is where Ukraine runs into stiff competition from the EU's new Eastern European members.
And then, most of Ukraine's industrial, mining and agricultural production is concentrated in the pro-Russian east. Cultural ties between Ukraine and Russia are too deep for the nationalists to effectively play on whatever small differences that exist. In fact, majority of population in Ukraine to the east of Dnyepr speaks Russian as their primary language. Even in Kiev - the nation's capital - you will hear Russian spoken on the street almost as frequently as Ukrainian. And this is despite the massive "ukrainization" effort conducted by the nationalists over the past twenty years.
Ukraine never existed as an independent state until 1990. Many in Ukraine find their new national identity trumpeted by nationalists from the western Ukraine a bit artificial. And the idea of antagonizing Russia does not sit well with most Ukrainians. In fact, there are far more tensions between eastern and western Ukraine than there are between Ukraine and Russia. If push comes to shove, Ukraine will be split right down the middle, with the eastern part holding most of the chips. Russians know this and Ukrainians know this and nobody wants to push things too far.
Even if - or, rather, when - Ukraine joins the EU, the problem of dependency on Russian energy will be far from over, as we can see from the EU's recent attempt to censure Russia over war in Georgia. Ukraine's steel industry requires massive amounts of electrical power. The only way Ukraine can become self-sufficient in this regard is by building more nuclear power plants. However, due to Chernobyl history this idea does not sit well with most Ukrainians. I lived thirty miles from Chernobyl and I can understand them.
Ukraine's international trade is growing, but it's growing primarily with Russia and China and not with the EU, as the nationalists in Kiev would have preferred. The primary reason here is the economic competition from the New Europe and particularly from Poland. With the steel market oversaturated, agricultural products take up a bigger chunk of Ukraine's exports. And this is where Ukraine runs into stiff competition from the EU's new Eastern European members.
And then, most of Ukraine's industrial, mining and agricultural production is concentrated in the pro-Russian east. Cultural ties between Ukraine and Russia are too deep for the nationalists to effectively play on whatever small differences that exist. In fact, majority of population in Ukraine to the east of Dnyepr speaks Russian as their primary language. Even in Kiev - the nation's capital - you will hear Russian spoken on the street almost as frequently as Ukrainian. And this is despite the massive "ukrainization" effort conducted by the nationalists over the past twenty years.
Ukraine never existed as an independent state until 1990. Many in Ukraine find their new national identity trumpeted by nationalists from the western Ukraine a bit artificial. And the idea of antagonizing Russia does not sit well with most Ukrainians. In fact, there are far more tensions between eastern and western Ukraine than there are between Ukraine and Russia. If push comes to shove, Ukraine will be split right down the middle, with the eastern part holding most of the chips. Russians know this and Ukrainians know this and nobody wants to push things too far.
